Reporter allegory avant-garde sports statistics for the Fancy Stats blog
October 4 at 11:24 AM
It pays to be different. According to Mark Gallant of the Action Network, contrarian bettors are off to their best alpha through the aboriginal four weeks of the division back 2003, the aboriginal year abstracts is available. Teams accumulation added than bisected of the money wagered are 23-38-1 adjoin the advance and those with added than 70 percent of the action market’s dollars are aloof 3-9.
Our league-projection blueprint helps determine how generally one aggregation should exhausted another based on its absolute and projected win rates. That gives us win probabilities for every game, as able-bodied as an adumbrated allowance of victory — helpful for acrimonious amateur adjoin the spread.
The action of creating proprietary point spreads is done by computer but there is an eye-test aspect involved, so not all amateur with the accomplished bend will be featured every week. With that in mind, actuality are this week’s prime picks adjoin the consensus point spreads from assorted sports books in Vegas.
Prime aces success rate:
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