With the midterm elections alone six weeks away, I am generally asked if Republicans will accumulate ascendancy of the House of Representatives. With all the political animation bouncing around, my safest acknowledgment references actual abstracts for the aboriginal midterm acclamation of first-term presidents, behindhand of affair — accumulated with presidential job approval ratings.
Unfortunately for the GOP and Admiral Trump, postwar trends are cruel and absolve why Democrats are aboveboard optimistic about acceptable ascendancy of the lower chamber.
Starting in 1946, Democrats led by Admiral Harry Truman absent 45 House seats. It is adorning to apperceive that Truman had a 27 percent job approval appraisement afore the midterm acclamation — a celebrated low for any president.
The American Presidency Project aggregate a blueprint announcement presidential job approval and the cardinal of House seats absent by the president’s party. Although job approval ratings were not consistently bright indicators of how able-bodied a president’s affair fared in its aboriginal midterm election, in contempo times they accept been added so.
For example, beneath Admiral Dwight Eisenhower’s leadership, Republicans absent 18 House seats in 1954 alike admitting Eisenhower enjoyed a actual absolute job approval appraisement of 62 percent in October of that year. Alone eight years later, Admiral John F. Kennedy presided over his alone midterm acclamation with a 61 percent job approval — acknowledgment why Democrats absent alone four House seats. That’s
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